The Unjournal · Pivotal Questions Initiative

Aggregated Results

Beliefs elicitation summaries and Metaculus forecasts

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Pre-Workshop Placeholder: This page contains placeholder content. To avoid anchoring participants' beliefs before the workshop, aggregated results will only be displayed after the March 16 workshop concludes. Until then, please submit your beliefs without viewing others' responses.

Workshop Beliefs Summary

Aggregated responses from workshop participants on the Pivotal Questions. These reflect expert priors before and after workshop discussions.

Response Statistics

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Total Responses
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Unique Participants
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Questions Covered

Detailed beliefs visualizations will be available after the workshop.

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Metaculus Forecasts

Formal forecasting questions on Metaculus for crowd predictions. These questions were designed based on the workshop's Pivotal Questions to enable quantified forecasting. (Note: Specific question links will be added once questions are posted to Metaculus.)

DALY_01

What is the best numerical conversion factor between WELLBYs and DALYs?

If a charity prevents 1 DALY (Disability-Adjusted Life Year), approximately how many WELLBYs does this represent? Current estimates range from 2-15.

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WELL_04

Is a single WELLBY measure better than measuring dimensions separately?

For comparing interventions affecting both mental and physical health, is it better to use a single WELLBY measure or separate dimensional measures that are then combined?

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WELL_08

Should wellbeing CEA rely on life satisfaction or experience measures?

For cost-effectiveness analysis, should the primary metric be based on life satisfaction (evaluative) or momentary experience/affect measures (experiential)?

View on Metaculus →
WELL_01a

How much more cost-effective would optimal measurement be vs linear WELLBY?

Consider allocating $100,000 optimally using the best feasible measure vs linear WELLBY. What ratio of costs achieves equivalent welfare outcomes?

View on Metaculus →

Metaculus question embeds will appear here once questions are posted.

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Full PQ Database

The complete set of Wellbeing Pivotal Questions with definitions, notes, and status tracking.

Open Wellbeing PQ Database in Coda →

Note: The Metaculus question drafts on this page were generated by Claude (Opus 4.5) based on user-provided CSV data, Coda tables, and discussion with David Reinstein regarding workshop structure and Metaculus suitability. Final questions require human review before posting.
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